Backblaze hard disk drive failure data: Update to Q2 2016

Ross Lazarus, September 2016



 This is a Kaplan Meier analysis of the BackBlaze hard drive reliability data, using all available data to end second quarter of 2016 from https://www.backblaze.com/b2/hard-drive-test-data.html . 

 Previous posts are at http://bioinformare.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/survival-analysis-of-hard-disk-drive.html and http://bioinformare.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/survival-analysis-of-hard-disk-drive.html .

 I reran my scripts and got the plots shown below. It's taking a while to read all the data as there are now a very large number of drives spinning. A total of 41740623 rows were processed in about 35 minutes on my home desktop by the python script in the github repository.

The new 8TB drives are performing the best of all - even better than the HGST and Hitachis - and way better than any of the earlier seagates. Hard to miss here - not so obvious in the report at Backblaze https://www.backblaze.com/blog/hard-drive-failure-rates-q2-2016/

 Updated curves:







and
By Manufacturer:
Add caption

Once again for me, little change is seen in the KM curves and statistics with a lot more drives and a lot more observaton time, suggesting that this statistical approach is reliable and robust, although in general we expect that more data provides better resolution. 

In terms of the KM statistical tests, additional data confirms the earlier inference that there are significant differences between the manufacturer and model risk profiles over time.

 Call:
survdiff(formula = sm ~ model, data = dm, rho = 0)

                                   N Observed Expected (O-E)^2/E (O-E)^2/V
model=HGST HMS5C4040ALE640     7168       85   505.51   349.800   406.826
model=HGST HMS5C4040BLE640     8505       29   269.99   215.103   231.736
model=Hitachi HDS5C3030ALA630  4664      117   466.48   261.826   302.989
model=Hitachi HDS5C4040ALE630  2719       71   268.60   145.365   157.458
model=Hitachi HDS722020ALA330  4774      215   472.27   140.149   161.908
model=Hitachi HDS723030ALA640  1048       55   103.54    22.753    23.459
model=ST3000DM001              4707     1705   246.40  8634.322  9272.385
model=ST31500341AS              787      216    35.74   909.141   917.789
model=ST31500541AS             2188      392   157.42   349.574   363.940
model=ST4000DM000             36089     1123  1500.66    95.042   151.313
model=ST500LM012 HN             801       26    22.42     0.573     0.577
model=ST6000DX000              1915       31    77.14    27.601    28.497
model=ST8000DM002              2754        3     3.74     0.146     0.149
model=WDC WD10EADS              550       60    46.72     3.773     3.818
model=WDC WD30EFRX             1289      136    87.38    27.053    27.637

  Chisq= 11353  on 14 degrees of freedom, p= 0 
Call:
survdiff(formula = s ~ manufact, data = ds, rho = 0)

                      N Observed Expected (O-E)^2/E (O-E)^2/V
manufact=HGST    15840      120    821.8   599.348   744.193
manufact=Hitachi 13246      462   1433.5   658.440  1046.810
manufact=HN        801       26     23.6     0.242     0.243
manufact=ST      49900     3792   2255.7  1046.249  2067.849
manufact=TOSHIBA   279       12     13.6     0.181     0.182
manufact=WDC      3920      385    248.7    74.701    78.874
 Chisq= 2493  on 5 degrees of freedom, p= 0 

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